Barr's seat not only one up for grabs
This year, Republican eyes are on the 2nd District in southwest Georgia, where farmer-friendly Rep. Sanford Bishop, D-Albany, is serving his fourth term. One GOP pollster says it may be Bishop's last, arguing that Dylan Glenn, a former Bush administration aide, presents a formidable opponent.
"The 2nd District is my upset pick for the country, my dark horse," says Atlanta-area GOP pollster Whit Ayres. If elected, Glenn would become the second Republican African-American congressman currently in office.
Georgia Democratic Party spokesman Stephen Boggs pooh-poohs Glenn's prospects. "The Republicans feel like they have someone they can back," he says. "They put a lot of money into that race. Unfortunately, it's not going to help them out much."
Bishop's campaign manager says he expects to win by a landslide, but admits that Glenn has them on their toes. The congressman, who is also black, has accumulated a moderate voting record. "But you don't want to be too confident in this race," campaign manager Tripper Sharp says.
In the 8th Congressional District, which covers 30 counties from Macon to the Florida line, third-term Rep. Saxby Chambliss, R-Moultrie, faces a tough contender in former Macon Mayor Jim Marshall.
"I think Saxby is a wounded duck," says Boggs.
Marshall was mayor from 1995 to 1999, when he decided not to seek another term. The Purple Heart recipient and law school professor is being touted as an effective, popular leader from the district's largest city, despite a probe into inefficiency and a $13 million debt at Macon Municipal Court.
The contest may turn on the prescription drug issue, which could resonate for the Democrat in a district with a large elderly, and not particularly wealthy, electorate.
Chambliss' supporters say they're unfazed. "Several months ago, we were on the Democrats' hit list [of the 25 most-vulnerable GOP U.S. House incumbents]," says Chambliss campaign manager Bert Dasher. "We are no longer on that list."
Not surprisingly, Georgia Democratic Party Chairman David Worley claims Chambliss' district is getting to be more fertile ground for Democrats. Chambliss "is running in a much more hostile territory than when we was first elected."
But unseating an incumbent is easier said than done: Since 1994, incumbents have won every congressional race in the state. That's partly because the districts as drawn by the General Assembly tend to play out as conservative, largely white and Republican, or liberal with lots of blacks and solidly Democratic.
What would it take to unseat an incumbent?
"Lots of money, first of all," says Worley. "And it generally takes an incumbent who for whatever reason is out of step with his district, if he's not voting in Washington the way people in his district want him to vote."
Currently, Georgia has 11 U.S. House seats. Of those, three are held by Democrats, eight by Republicans. But after this year's census is completed, Georgia is expected to pick at least one, possibly two, new seats in Congress.
Those seats will come mainly to the Atlanta area, which has grown dramatically since the last census, but changes in the map likely will ripple across Georgia.
And after those district lines change, some of the state's congressional seats could change hands, because the reconfigured districts present more tenuous ground for incumbents.
Both parties claim the changes will bring opportunity. But Democrats, who hold only three seats in the delegation currently, have the most to gain. Worley contends Democrats could end up eight representatives in D.C. by January 2003, compared to five for Republicans.
