Will the friendly diplomacy between Russia and the U.S. last?

Long before the second Bush administration "rids the world of evil," Washington and Moscow will have a falling out. Expect the current effusive and unseemly displays of affection between the two to end as soon as the leaders of both countries realize they no longer need one another's cooperation in dealing with terrorism in Central Asia -- which might be the only thing the U.S. and Russia have in common.

Afghanistan was a national security problem for the Russians long before Americans learned where to find it on the map again after 9-11. Afghanistan was Moscow's Vietnam in the 1980s, and the Russians remember that the U.S. was largely responsible for their defeat. In the '90s, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan provided a base of operations for Islamist Chechen and Uzbek rebels contesting Russian power in the Caucuses and Central Asia. So it was no surprise that Moscow was willing to join Washington (and New Delhi) in supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. But be surprised -- and optimistic -- if Moscow actually supports Washington's effort to create a multi-ethnic, consociational regime in Afghanistan.

Star Wars remains the outstanding, probably irresolvable problem between Russia and the United States. The Republicans want to deploy ballistic missile defenses. And to do that, they have to find a diplomatic way around -- or an undiplomatic way over -- the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Whether they actually perform as promised -- and so far they don't appear to -- ballistic missile defenses nonetheless undermine the fear and faith that nuclear deterrents inspire. As a declining military power unable to match the U.S. in technological development or spending, Russia has a powerful national interest in maintaining the credibility of its nuclear deterrent. Friendly relations will go south when the Russians refuse to budge on revision of the ABM Treaty.

That Russia is stuck in permanent mid-transition to liberal democracy is also a major problem. Real power in the country is concentrated in the presidency. The parliament is irrelevant. The judiciary is weak and politicized. The press is subordinate. Corruption at all levels of government is institutionalized. Ideological extremes of right and left now meet in a paranoid national communism. Given that climate, all it would take to sour relations would be an American public outraged over Russian mistreatment of Jews or Baptists or Mormon missionaries.

Of course, we need to be careful about predicting a deterioration in relations after the kinds of success claimed at the summit at the president's ranch in Crawford, Texas. Who are we to gainsay a leader as perceptive and insightful as George W. Bush when he claims to have "peered into the soul" of Vladimir Putin and concluded the former KGP chief could be trusted?

Yeah, right.

John Hickman hasn't been to Russia either. But he's been close.